Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.465607 2.605197 2.756072 2.932734 3.135905 3.364813 3.646103
2025-03-30 2.229409 2.409604 2.614775 2.870158 3.186517 3.576257 4.112437
2025-04-06 2.071810 2.268708 2.499893 2.798790 3.187651 3.698125 4.465551
2025-04-13 1.964257 2.171982 2.421621 2.754119 3.204388 3.828895 4.849506
2025-04-20 1.914160 2.138086 2.413868 2.793237 3.330797 4.127129 5.579294
2025-04-27 1.890026 2.132669 2.439057 2.875100 3.524602 4.564423 6.757972
2025-05-04 1.839523 2.089437 2.410242 2.877439 3.598284 4.821647 7.744008
2025-05-11 1.795296 2.051103 2.384312 2.879831 3.670054 5.090894 8.992325
2025-05-18 1.731664 1.983924 2.314837 2.812006 3.618082 5.111751 9.557652
2025-05-25 1.692096 1.946612 2.284009 2.798808 3.654975 5.319534 11.035511
2025-06-01 1.654004 1.909437 2.251084 2.779349 3.677823 5.503503 12.796907
2025-06-08 1.617408 1.872693 2.216740 2.754826 3.688142 5.662426 14.920129
2025-06-15 1.601354 1.864254 2.223607 2.797940 3.832948 6.211574 23.567287
2025-06-22 1.557005 1.815488 2.170259 2.740902 3.781191 6.235692 28.004015
2025-06-29 1.513292 1.766218 2.114236 2.676217 3.708064 6.183480 31.623630
2025-07-06 1.478988 1.728936 2.074294 2.635640 3.678791 6.253876 42.811823
2025-07-13 1.467814 1.723294 2.080321 2.671177 3.806900 6.858079 NaN
2025-07-20 1.467237 1.732271 2.108176 2.745370 4.028740 7.952316 NaN
2025-07-27 1.448404 1.714660 2.095028 2.747485 4.093367 8.518374 NaN
2025-08-03 1.430627 1.697954 2.082481 2.749650 4.158607 9.160716 NaN
2025-08-10 1.398548 1.659906 2.035863 2.688208 4.066058 8.960119 NaN
2025-08-17 1.379595 1.640311 2.017134 2.676234 4.091897 9.423144 NaN
2025-08-24 1.360205 1.619588 1.995943 2.658567 4.101842 9.823736 NaN